I stopped writing about terrorism and terrorist groups a long time ago, it seemed impractical trying to understand madness, insanity and evil.
Instead, I focused my attention on guerrilla warfare… true that some guerrilla groups relay on terrorist tactics to advance their goals, like Sendero Luminoso (Shinning Path), but in my mind made more sense to study them because they were the result of organized protest: student movements, unions, teachers… All those movements had the purpose to raise their voice against injustice, corruption and tyrannical governments… Remember the Arab Spring?
As I said above, it made more sense.
The recent events have opened a wound that I thought it was closed, although I won’t write about the topic I consider important to study the impact of the new directives and policies that United States and the European Union are implementing to fight terrorism, and more specifically I find imperative to asses the consequences of such policies for Latin America.
Truth is, Latin America has never been in the White House top 10, I think it is considered more like a backyard that needs maintenance every other season and a new alarm system when a neighbor snoops over the fence, other than the watch dogs, not many in the U.S. government have real interest in what happens in Latin America, oh and by watch dogs I mean DEA, DHS, and Treasury.
I foresee border crossing difficulties, trade will slow down, legal immigration will have a set back, and immigration officers in Latin America will have the same psyche than the U.S. border officers (we already have the first cases of Syrian nationals detained in Honduras) but legal activities will not be the only ones impacted with the new policies; transnational crime and regional drug organizations will also suffer struggle to accommodate their goods as the result of the reinforced security at the borders, customs and more military patrols, therefore they’ll turn one more time to domestic markets to move their products while the borders re-open, the security relaxes or they find a new market, whatever happens first.
Also, the Syrian refugee crisis and the recently approved vetting system will have a direct impact for all the Latinos in two ways: First, for those that are trying to escape from the Maras, hunger and violence is going to be more difficult, expensive and dangerous but not impossible. Second, Latin America will become a new hub for refugees formal and informal, tumbling economies and stretching social order, because Latin America doesn’t have the institutions to process a migratory wave, they don’t even have institutions to process the demands of the current population, how on earth will the governments support new families?
I just wonder.
Perhaps the Latin America governments’ psyche consider the region outside the threat circle as there are few links to the colonialist stage in Middle East and Africa, making them feel a bit safer than EU and US, however not being in the list doesn’t exclude the region from being used, or targeted…
In the end, Latin America does have strong relations with “Western Powers” and the later will pressure Latin America to support security initiatives, consequently the support offered will shift the perception from ISIL and Al -Quaeda toward the region, Latin America next move is crucial…let’s see what happens in the chess board.